Mortgage Delinquency Rising in Vancouver as 2025 Renewals Hit

Interest rates in Canada are finally easing, but not fast enough to protect homeowners in Vancouver facing renewals in 2025. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the federal agency that monitors housing trends, says more Canadians are missing mortgage payments. It is a small change, but it could reshape Vancouver’s housing market as higher renewals lead to more payment stress, forced sales, and price corrections.

Most Vancouver homeowners bought or refinanced when interest rates were near historic lows between 2020 and 2022. Now those mortgages are renewing at rates more than double what they were, even after this year’s small cuts. The average five-year fixed mortgage sits around 5 percent compared to 2 percent just a few years ago. That difference adds up fast, and CMHC warns the effects are only beginning to show. This is why experts say mortgage delinquency in Vancouver 2025 could become one of the most important economic stories to watch.

Could This Push House Prices Down?

Maybe — but not in the way buyers hope. When mortgage payments jump, some owners list early to stay ahead of renewal pressure, briefly increasing supply. Others hold off, hoping for deeper rate cuts before selling. This push-and-pull slows the market and creates pockets of opportunity rather than a city-wide price drop.

CMHC data shows BC’s delinquency rate rising faster than before, though still below the national average. If more households struggle through 2025, forced sales could increase — particularly among condo and investment properties where profit margins are thin. It’s not a crash scenario, but it might finally give first-time buyers some leverage after years of record prices.

Could Rising Mortgage Delinquency Push Vancouver House Prices Down in 2025?

Maybe, but not dramatically. When payments rise, some homeowners list early to avoid financial strain, adding short bursts of new supply. Others wait, hoping for lower rates before selling. This back-and-forth can slow sales and flatten prices, but it rarely sparks a collapse.

CMHC’s latest delinquency data shows British Columbia still below the national average, but the rate is climbing faster than before. If financial pressure spreads in 2025, more forced sales could appear, especially among condo investors or owners with smaller equity buffers. That could bring small price dips or temporary buyer leverage, not a full crash.

Will Mortgage Renewals Force Vancouver Homeowners to Downsize in 2025?

Many will adapt, but some are already running out of room. Those on variable or short fixed terms face what CMHC calls "payment shock" when their renewals jump to higher rates. The Bank of Canada lists this as one of the biggest financial risks for 2025.

In high-cost areas like Metro Vancouver, even a slight increase can tip budgets over. Refinancing into longer terms or selling smaller homes is becoming more common. For growing families and first-time buyers who stretched to get in, downsizing may become a financial necessity rather than a choice.

What Happens to Vancouver Mortgages if Rates Go Up or Down in 2025?

If rates go down, monthly payments ease slightly, but not enough to erase the jump from pandemic lows. A homeowner renewing a 2 percent mortgage at 4.5 percent still faces a major increase.

If rates stay flat, the squeeze spreads slowly. Renewals in 2025 and 2026 will continue pushing delinquencies higher as each household resets to higher payments.

If rates rise again, mortgage stress could grow sharply. That might push more listings onto the market, softening prices but also leaving some households unable to refinance at all.

How Rising Mortgage Delinquency Could Affect Renters in Vancouver

Renters are not immune. When landlords renew their own mortgages at higher rates, they often raise rents where they can. In BC, annual increases are capped at 3.5 percent for 2025, but the rule does not apply when tenants move out, meaning new leases can be set at full market value.

That means renters who stay put will see moderate increases, while anyone moving faces a jump. CMHC’s 2025 report shows the average purpose-built rental in Metro Vancouver costs about $2,400 a month. If mortgage stress causes more investors to sell or repurpose rental units, the city’s already tight supply could shrink even further.

Why Vancouver Still Has One of Canada’s Lowest Mortgage Delinquency Rates

Despite warning signs, Vancouver remains one of the most stable housing markets in Canada. Mortgage delinquency sits around 0.15 percent, below the national average of 0.21 percent. Strong job growth and steady immigration have helped households stay current.

But this stability can be misleading. Many families rely on dual incomes or support from relatives to make ends meet. Regulators like CMHC and OSFI warn that BC’s high household debt leaves little buffer if the economy weakens or rates climb again.

What Vancouver Buyers Should Watch in 2025’s Mortgage Renewal Cycle

If you are waiting to buy, 2025 may offer selective openings rather than a full correction. Watch listings in Burnaby, Coquitlam, and Surrey, where condo investors are renewing early and some may sell under pressure.

If rates keep falling, competition will return quickly as buyers re-enter the market. If they hold steady, prices could level off but remain high. And if rates rise again, more motivated sellers might appear, but with tighter lending rules, getting approved could still be difficult.

The Bottom Line: What Vancouver’s 2025 Mortgage Renewal Storm Means for You

Mortgage delinquency rates rarely make headlines, but they reveal how stable or fragile a housing market really is. For now, Vancouver looks steady, yet the coming renewal wave will be its toughest test since before the pandemic.

Whether you are renting, buying, or holding on to your current home, keep an eye on what happens when those low-rate loans reset. That is where the next shift in Vancouver’s housing market will begin.